With over 35 years of experience in education-based athletics and higher education, I have dedicated my career to preparing the next generation of athletics administrators. In my current faculty position at the University of Cincinnati, I teach Economics of Sport, Sport Finance & Development and a master’s-level course titled Applied Financial Management Strategies in Athletics. These subjects are not just academic exercises; they are essential tools for navigating the evolving landscape of college athletics.
Among the most pressing realities that I am confronting is the transfer portal, which has reshaped college athletics in ways none of us could have fully predicted. It has created opportunity, mobility and – in many cases — a second chance for student-athletes who need a new environment to grow. But it has also created a marketplace with far more sellers than buyers, and that imbalance is producing consequences that too few people in our profession are willing to talk about openly.
At the NFHS/NIAAA National Athletic Directors Conference in Tampa, Fla., last month, a workshop shared a statistic that should stop every administrator in their tracks: more than 50% of student-athletes who enter the transfer portal never receive another scholarship opportunity. Let me say that again, because it is at the heart of the issue: over half never land anywhere. For a system that prides itself on education, development and opportunity, that number should concern every one of us.
The portal is a marketplace, and like any marketplace, it is governed by supply and demand. Right now, the supply of athletes far exceeds the demand for them. Thousands of young people enter the portal each year believing they will find a better opportunity. As such, many do. But many more do not.
When an athlete enters the portal, they are effectively resigning from their current position. Their scholarship is no longer guaranteed. Their roster spot is no longer protected. Their academic and social support structures are disrupted. Moreover, if no one picks them up, they are left in limbo, without a team, without a scholarship and often without a clear path forward.
This is the part of the conversation that often gets glossed over. We celebrate success stories such as the athlete who transfers up, the player who finds a better fit or the one who blossoms in a new system. Yet, the stories of those who vanish from the game are seldom told. Nobody speaks about the ones who were encouraged to “explore their options” only to find out there were none.
As athletic directors, we cannot ignore the human cost of that silence.
The portal’s downside is uncomfortable because it exposes truths that challenge the narratives that have been built around college athletics over many decades.
Coaches don’t want to talk about it because the portal gives them exceptional flexibility. They can rebuild rosters overnight. They can replace underperforming athletes without long-term development. They can operate like general managers in a professional system, without the contractual guardrails that protect athletes in professional leagues.
Administrators don’t want to talk about it because winning drives revenue, and the portal helps them win. Donors stay engaged. NIL collectives stay active. The competitive cycle keeps spinning.
Consequently, the athletes who get hurt by the system can’t talk about it because they lose their platform the moment they lose their roster spot. As a result, the silence continues.
One of the most troubling consequences of the portal era is the shrinking opportunity for high school athletes. College coaches are increasingly choosing older, more physically mature transfers over the traditional 17- and 18-year-old high school prospects. Why? The risk is lower, the return is faster and the pressure to win now is relentless. This means fewer scholarships for high school seniors. As a result, more athletes pushed to junior colleges, prep schools or lower divisions. More families are confused about why their child, who did everything right, suddenly has fewer options than athletes did even five years ago. For high school athletic directors, this is a critical message to communicate to families: The recruiting landscape has changed. The traditional pathway is no longer guaranteed.
So what happens to the athletes who get stuck? When an athlete enters the portal and doesn’t land somewhere new, several outcomes are common:
- They lose their scholarship at their original institution.
- They lose access to training, facilities, and academic support.
- They may return to school as regular students, often without financial aid.
- Their athletic career may end abruptly.
- Their academic progress may be disrupted.
- Their mental health may suffer due to uncertainty, isolation and identity loss.
These are not hypothetical scenarios. They are happening every year, to hundreds if not thousands of young people.
As leaders, we cannot pretend this is acceptable collateral damage. Whether you are a veteran AD or an aspiring one, your role in this ecosystem matters. You are often the first line of education for families, the first voice of reason for athletes, and the first advocate for their long-term wellbeing.
Here is what I suggest:
- Educate families early and honestly. Explain the realities of the portal. Explain the risks. Explain the shrinking opportunities for high school athletes. Families deserve transparency, not false hope.
- Help athletes choose the right initial fit. The best way to avoid portal risk is to make a sound first decision. Fit matters more than the level they aspire to play.
- Push back against pressure to “process” athletes. Student-athletes should not be pushed into the portal because a coach wants to clear space. That practice undermines the educational mission of athletics.
- Advocate for academic continuity. If an athlete leaves a team, their academic progress should not collapse with it. We must try and protect their path to a degree.
- Keep the human being at the center. Behind every portal entry is a young person with dreams, fears, and a finite window to compete. They deserve more than a transactional system.
The transfer portal is now a permanent part of college athletics. Mobility is here to stay, but mobility without guardrails creates instability, and instability without leadership creates harm.
As athletic directors, we cannot control the entire system. But we can control how we educate, guide and protect the young people entrusted to us. We can choose honesty over convenience. We can choose development over disposability. We can choose to speak openly about the consequences others prefer to ignore.
The portal can be a tool for opportunity, but only if we acknowledge the risks and lead with integrity. Our athletes deserve nothing less.
