Debunking NCAA Tournament Myths

There are plenty of misconceptions about how teams are selected, seeded and placed in the brackets for the NCAA Men's and Women's Basketball Championships. 

From the idea that a certain number of wins guarantees a spot to the belief that committee members rig matchups for dramatic effect, many long-standing myths need to be debunked.

Let's separate fact from fiction when it comes to the NCAA tournament selection and seeding process.

Myth No. 1: The NET ranking is the only factor that matters

Reality: The NCAA Evaluation Tool is a key sorting tool for the men's and women's basketball selection committees, but it is not the sole factor in determining who makes the tournament. Both committees consider various metrics, including quadrant wins, strength of schedule, results-based metrics like Strength of Record and Wins Against Bubble for men's basketball, and a broader set of criteria for women's basketball, including competitive losses and regional rankings. Predictive analytics like KenPom, Torvik and BPI are also considered for men's selections.

Learn more about the NET rankings and the NCAA tournament selection criteria. 

Myth No. 2: Conference affiliation plays a role in selection

Reality: Teams are evaluated independently of their conferences. Each team's resume is judged on its own merits.  

Myth No. 3: Winning 20 games guarantees a tournament spot

Reality: There is no magic number of wins that automatically secures an NCAA tournament bid. The committees evaluate the quality of a team's wins and losses rather than focusing solely on win totals. A team with 20 or more wins but a weak schedule or few Quadrant 1 victories may still be left out, while a team with fewer wins but a strong resume of quality victories could earn an at-large bid.

Myth No. 4: The committee ensures certain matchups for drama

Reality: While some matchups may appear dramatic, the committee does not intentionally create storylines. Matchups are determined based on seeding, bracketing principles and geographical considerations. Committee members do not even see the matchups until the bracket is finalized. Additionally, they follow strict rules to avoid conference rematches and ensure balance across the bracket.

Learn more about NCAA tournament selection and seeding.

Myth No. 5: The last four in and first four out are set in stone

Reality: The final at-large teams fluctuate until the last moment before Selection Sunday. Bubble teams' statuses can change based on results from conference tournaments and potential "bid stealers" who unexpectedly win their leagues, taking away an at-large spot from another deserving team.

Learn more about the NCAA tournament "bubble" and what it means.

Myth No. 6: The committees favor blue-blood programs

Reality: Past tournament success and program history do not factor into a team's selection. The committees evaluate teams based on their current season performance only. While it may seem like traditional powerhouses always make the tournament, that is often because they consistently build strong schedules and earn quality wins, not because of favoritism.

Myth No. 7: Committee members work together to rank teams for selection and seeding purposes

Reality: Committee members vote individually during the selection and seeding process, and their votes are private. While they collaborate in discussions and review extensive data, members submit their own votes, and selections are made based on a structured, multistep voting process. This ensures an unbiased approach where no single individual or group dictates the final bracket.

Myth No. 8: Late-season performance is the most important factor

Reality: The committee evaluates a team's entire body of work. While late-season success can help a team's resume, early-season games are important, too. One late-season factor that comes into play is if a star player is injured and unable to play, a team's seeding can be altered accordingly.

Understand how March Madness Selections work.

Myth No. 9: Television networks influence the bracket

Reality: The networks that broadcast March Madness have no involvement in the selection or bracketing process. The bracket is built independently by the committees, and the networks simply react to the results once the field is announced.

Myth No. 10: A winning conference record ensures a bid

Reality: Having a winning record in conference play does not automatically result in a tournament bid. The committees look at each team's complete body of work in their evaluations. A team with a 10-8 record in a weak conference may be left out, while a team with an 8-10 record with significant Quadrant 1 wins could still make the cut.

Final thoughts

The NCAA tournament selection process for men's and women's basketball involves a mix of data-driven analysis and subjective evaluation. While many of the myths surrounding Selection Sunday have persisted over the years, the reality is that the committees follow a thorough, structured process that prioritizes fairness and balance. 

Understanding the selection criteria and the selection process can help fans better predict which teams will make the field and appreciate the complexity behind the madness of March.